OBAMA Will Win Big, Hillary Finishes 3rd, Romney Squeaks

I am hearing from my contacts (albeit limited) on the campus of the University of Iowa that students are returning early from Christmas Break IN DROVES - for the express purpose of caucusing for Barak Obama. A good chunk of these kids are from the suburbs of Chicago, which is about a 3 1/2 hour drive (probably 2 HOURS with the way these kids drive) from campus. They are already oriented towards their U.S. Senator....but many have now heard him speak in person, or know someone who has. They are turned on by him. And they feel they have given him their pledge to help him make history tonite. At their young age, that is an intoxicating feeling.

Fast forward to the typical Democratic caucus room around Iowa college campuses tonite. Some will be as high as 75% - 80% for Obama. Candidates that do not receive 15% on that first ballot have to stand up a second time and announce to the room their second choice. I don't know too many college students who will be able to resist the subtle peer pressure to move to Obama. In some of those rooms, the final vote might be 100% for Obama. Look for that nugget of information to be reported somewhere in the next 24 hours.

As for Hillary, tonite will not be her night. She'll put as good a spin on it as she can, but she'll be wounded. The money, the name recognition and an ex-president campaigning for her won't even get her a third of the Democratic vote tonite. She will limp out of Iowa with the goal of surviving New Hampshire so she can regroup and be the "Comeback Kid" on February 5th.

Mitt will win IT....but not by much. The Republican storyline tonite will be about McCain. But I continue to focus on Romney. He is the Republican Eastern Establishment Military-Security Industrial Complex candidate - and they know how to get their candidate nominated and elected.

As the Nation begins to turn it's attention to selecting it's next leader - millions of our fellow Americans will make a superficial snap judgement on him based on his central-casting presidential-looking good looks and the fact that he is well spoken. Madison Avenue and American Finance will fund a savvy and subtle advertising campaign that will be irresistible to most Americans. The fact that he will continue the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfield policies will not even dawn on them until it is too late - after he is inaugurated next January.