Record turnout. Can we say it again RECORD TURNOUT !! And the college students DID turnout in droves for their candidate, just as we predicted here yesterday morning.
Hillary finished third. Again, just as we saw it.
But boy were we wrong on the Republican race. Mike Huckabee trounced Mitt Romney.
Well enough of the recap.
As if it wasn't a huge enough night for him already, Obama then stepped to the podium and delivered the speech of his career. It had the feel of history-in-the-making. Many Americans were getting their first true impression of him, and he did not waste the moment.
John Edwards was rewarded for all his hard work. But it is hard to see where he goes from here. The money will be flowing to Obama, and to Clinton (by folks who want to stop Obama). He will continue to make the strong showing here or there. We think he stays in, hoping to become a strong second choice, that might conceivably be parlayed into vice-presidential consideration. But Obama will not choose him. Hillary might.
Which brings us to the female Senator from New York. Uh oh. This one had to hurt. Her message of experience and ready-from-day-one to be President was embraced by less than a third of the folks voting in the Democratic caucuses last night. On a night of record Democratic turnout, when 56% of the folks in the Iowa PreProll indicated they were FIRST-TIME Caucus goers, her message wasn't selling well against Obama's and Edwards" message of CHANGE. This has major ramifications for her candidacy. If Obama energizes Democrats (and Independents) in New Hampshire and South Carolina this way - it is over.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Thursday, January 3, 2008
OBAMA Will Win Big, Hillary Finishes 3rd, Romney Squeaks
I am hearing from my contacts (albeit limited) on the campus of the University of Iowa that students are returning early from Christmas Break IN DROVES - for the express purpose of caucusing for Barak Obama. A good chunk of these kids are from the suburbs of Chicago, which is about a 3 1/2 hour drive (probably 2 HOURS with the way these kids drive) from campus. They are already oriented towards their U.S. Senator....but many have now heard him speak in person, or know someone who has. They are turned on by him. And they feel they have given him their pledge to help him make history tonite. At their young age, that is an intoxicating feeling.
Fast forward to the typical Democratic caucus room around Iowa college campuses tonite. Some will be as high as 75% - 80% for Obama. Candidates that do not receive 15% on that first ballot have to stand up a second time and announce to the room their second choice. I don't know too many college students who will be able to resist the subtle peer pressure to move to Obama. In some of those rooms, the final vote might be 100% for Obama. Look for that nugget of information to be reported somewhere in the next 24 hours.
As for Hillary, tonite will not be her night. She'll put as good a spin on it as she can, but she'll be wounded. The money, the name recognition and an ex-president campaigning for her won't even get her a third of the Democratic vote tonite. She will limp out of Iowa with the goal of surviving New Hampshire so she can regroup and be the "Comeback Kid" on February 5th.
Mitt will win IT....but not by much. The Republican storyline tonite will be about McCain. But I continue to focus on Romney. He is the Republican Eastern Establishment Military-Security Industrial Complex candidate - and they know how to get their candidate nominated and elected.
As the Nation begins to turn it's attention to selecting it's next leader - millions of our fellow Americans will make a superficial snap judgement on him based on his central-casting presidential-looking good looks and the fact that he is well spoken. Madison Avenue and American Finance will fund a savvy and subtle advertising campaign that will be irresistible to most Americans. The fact that he will continue the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfield policies will not even dawn on them until it is too late - after he is inaugurated next January.
Fast forward to the typical Democratic caucus room around Iowa college campuses tonite. Some will be as high as 75% - 80% for Obama. Candidates that do not receive 15% on that first ballot have to stand up a second time and announce to the room their second choice. I don't know too many college students who will be able to resist the subtle peer pressure to move to Obama. In some of those rooms, the final vote might be 100% for Obama. Look for that nugget of information to be reported somewhere in the next 24 hours.
As for Hillary, tonite will not be her night. She'll put as good a spin on it as she can, but she'll be wounded. The money, the name recognition and an ex-president campaigning for her won't even get her a third of the Democratic vote tonite. She will limp out of Iowa with the goal of surviving New Hampshire so she can regroup and be the "Comeback Kid" on February 5th.
Mitt will win IT....but not by much. The Republican storyline tonite will be about McCain. But I continue to focus on Romney. He is the Republican Eastern Establishment Military-Security Industrial Complex candidate - and they know how to get their candidate nominated and elected.
As the Nation begins to turn it's attention to selecting it's next leader - millions of our fellow Americans will make a superficial snap judgement on him based on his central-casting presidential-looking good looks and the fact that he is well spoken. Madison Avenue and American Finance will fund a savvy and subtle advertising campaign that will be irresistible to most Americans. The fact that he will continue the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfield policies will not even dawn on them until it is too late - after he is inaugurated next January.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Wal-Mart Gift Cards not working earns them millions???
We have not seen it reported this way yet - for every 5 day period Wal-Mart can delay the use of it's gift cards, it would generate over $1 million in internal cash flow.
It's simple, math.
CNN has previously reported that sales of gift cards in the U.S. would be $26.3 BILLION this year.
CNBC has previously reported (in it's documentary on Wal-Mart), that it generates more than 10% of U.S. retail sales. We'll use 10% for this calculation, and assume that Wal-Mart would have a similiar percentage of U.S. gift card sales
The current 90 day Treasury Bill rate is 2.85%
There are 365 days in a year.
(26.3 X .1) X (.0286/365) = $205,479 per day in interest.
WOW !!
Why am I taking the time to report this? I got a Wal-Mart gift card for Christmas!
I went there on Wednesday to buy some RW DVD's with it. I got in line to checkout. Word was passed in these loooong lines that if you were trying to pay with a gift card - they weren't working. I was pissed!
A nice older gentleman in front of me, speculated on how much Wal-Mart would benefit if this was a system wide "failure".
When I got home I decided to spend 5 minutes resaerching this. With the miracle that is Google, I had my answer is less than that time!
It's simple, math.
CNN has previously reported that sales of gift cards in the U.S. would be $26.3 BILLION this year.
CNBC has previously reported (in it's documentary on Wal-Mart), that it generates more than 10% of U.S. retail sales. We'll use 10% for this calculation, and assume that Wal-Mart would have a similiar percentage of U.S. gift card sales
The current 90 day Treasury Bill rate is 2.85%
There are 365 days in a year.
(26.3 X .1) X (.0286/365) = $205,479 per day in interest.
WOW !!
Why am I taking the time to report this? I got a Wal-Mart gift card for Christmas!
I went there on Wednesday to buy some RW DVD's with it. I got in line to checkout. Word was passed in these loooong lines that if you were trying to pay with a gift card - they weren't working. I was pissed!
A nice older gentleman in front of me, speculated on how much Wal-Mart would benefit if this was a system wide "failure".
When I got home I decided to spend 5 minutes resaerching this. With the miracle that is Google, I had my answer is less than that time!
Prediction
1) Martial law will be declared in Pakistan within days.
2) The elections there will still be held. Voter turnout will be abysmal, yet the government will declare victory and a mandate to govern.
3) The Bush administration will comment favorably on the election results.
4) Citizens in this country will go on about their daily routines as if nothing had happened.
Question: If a beautiful, magnificent oak tree is cut down in a foreign forest, and the mass majority of people here aren't even aware enough to know that it happened, did the oak really fall?
2) The elections there will still be held. Voter turnout will be abysmal, yet the government will declare victory and a mandate to govern.
3) The Bush administration will comment favorably on the election results.
4) Citizens in this country will go on about their daily routines as if nothing had happened.
Question: If a beautiful, magnificent oak tree is cut down in a foreign forest, and the mass majority of people here aren't even aware enough to know that it happened, did the oak really fall?
Benazir Bhutto Assassinated
We are saddened by the death of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan. She was the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, and was drawing increasingly huge crowds to her rallies critical of Mushariff. That apparently became too much of a concern for the Pakistani government. We see the results of their concern this morning.
Remember, Bhutto's own father was assassinated. Her two brothers were murdered outside of Pahistan under mysterious circumstances. Benazir Bhutto had said repeatedly that she was in fear of her life. And yet she decided to return to her country, after a self-imposed exile, to run for office again.
At the airport, on the day of her return to re-enter Pakistan, there was an unsuccessful assassination attempt. And yet she continued her work to expose the Pakistani government's true character and intentions. This was truly a courageous woman, a courageous politician - the kind we no longer see here in our own country.
It is very interesting to watch as the Pakistani government scrambles to gain control of the story. CNN at approximately 7:30 CST had on a former Information Minister of Pakistan who urged "caution" about continuing to report the story that Bhutto's husband said she was shot in the neck and died from this wound. He instead said that the "situation is a bit confused, as one would expect." They are working hard to float the story that she died as a reult of the suicide explosion, not from bullet wounds.
CNN should be applauded for poking a hole in the official report out of Pakistan that she died as a result of an explosion at the rally. CNN further reported that attendees of this rally were required to pass thru metal detectors and were subject to searches. And yet someone was able to get a gun past these checkpoints. There were aware of the make and model of the car she was driving in. When she attempted to flee for her safety at the start of the violence, her car was hit by five bullets, and she suffered her fatal wound.
Remember, Bhutto's own father was assassinated. Her two brothers were murdered outside of Pahistan under mysterious circumstances. Benazir Bhutto had said repeatedly that she was in fear of her life. And yet she decided to return to her country, after a self-imposed exile, to run for office again.
At the airport, on the day of her return to re-enter Pakistan, there was an unsuccessful assassination attempt. And yet she continued her work to expose the Pakistani government's true character and intentions. This was truly a courageous woman, a courageous politician - the kind we no longer see here in our own country.
It is very interesting to watch as the Pakistani government scrambles to gain control of the story. CNN at approximately 7:30 CST had on a former Information Minister of Pakistan who urged "caution" about continuing to report the story that Bhutto's husband said she was shot in the neck and died from this wound. He instead said that the "situation is a bit confused, as one would expect." They are working hard to float the story that she died as a reult of the suicide explosion, not from bullet wounds.
CNN should be applauded for poking a hole in the official report out of Pakistan that she died as a result of an explosion at the rally. CNN further reported that attendees of this rally were required to pass thru metal detectors and were subject to searches. And yet someone was able to get a gun past these checkpoints. There were aware of the make and model of the car she was driving in. When she attempted to flee for her safety at the start of the violence, her car was hit by five bullets, and she suffered her fatal wound.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
DEMS talking point - BUSH veto of child health care bill
OK OK Bush veto'd the bill to provide millions of uninsured American kids with health care. He has veto'd this twice now.
IN SPITE OF THE NEWS wants American kids to grow up healthy. Doesn't everybody? We think President Bush does. He's a Dad. Basically a decent guy. Stubborn and very misguided at times, but a decent guy.
He has good reasons for vetoing this bill. Kids of parents making over $100 k per year should have their health cae paid for by their parents, not the rest of us.
The DEMS sent it up a second time for use down the road. It is electioneering pure and simple. They want Republicans on record as voting against it and vetoing it, so they have another issue they can club their Republican opponents with in their home districts in next year's elections.
IN SPITE OF THE NEWS wants American kids to grow up healthy. Doesn't everybody? We think President Bush does. He's a Dad. Basically a decent guy. Stubborn and very misguided at times, but a decent guy.
He has good reasons for vetoing this bill. Kids of parents making over $100 k per year should have their health cae paid for by their parents, not the rest of us.
The DEMS sent it up a second time for use down the road. It is electioneering pure and simple. They want Republicans on record as voting against it and vetoing it, so they have another issue they can club their Republican opponents with in their home districts in next year's elections.
This is the DAY in Baseball.....
Sports junkies and Baseball fans have been waiting for this day for a loooong time... former Senator George's report on steroid use in baseball. His news conference is scheduled later this afternoon at 2:00 pm EST. He is expected to release names of current and retired players who are part of this scandal. IN SPITE OF THE NEWS hopes he is just as diligent in releasing the names of current and retired OWNERS who were just as complicit in this scandal as the players.
As he has been hired, and paid by the owners, we are expecting him to be less than fair and balanced. IN SPITE OF THE NEWS predicts this will be painted as essentially a player scandal. Players greedy to grab as much free agent salary from the owners as they could.
Major League Baseball (the Commissioner's Office and the Owners) will come in for some blame, after all, George's report would be DOA in the court of credibility in he didn't.
We will analyze the release and post later in the afternoon.
As he has been hired, and paid by the owners, we are expecting him to be less than fair and balanced. IN SPITE OF THE NEWS predicts this will be painted as essentially a player scandal. Players greedy to grab as much free agent salary from the owners as they could.
Major League Baseball (the Commissioner's Office and the Owners) will come in for some blame, after all, George's report would be DOA in the court of credibility in he didn't.
We will analyze the release and post later in the afternoon.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)